As the November 3 election day draws nearer, more people are likely tuning into the coverage of Biden vs Trump than would have done in any other election. Trump’s 2016 victory shocked many – pleasantly so for his supporters and anyone who bet on him. With the polls less favorable for contender Joe Biden than they were for 2016’s Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, it really is all to play for. So, if you wanted to get involved in speculating who might win, how do you go about betting on the US election?
One of the most important factors to consider when betting on an election is the state of the odds on the next US President. The odds are taken based on an amalgamation of polls of public opinion as well as change over time for the polls. Mid-September odds show that Biden leads – his odds to win have a smaller payout than Trump’s. Indeed, Biden stands at 4/5 or 1.8 while Trump lags slightly behind at 11/10 or 2.1. But the minimal difference means that even pollsters aren’t sure which way the election might go.
The public opinion is, therefore, one of the most important things to consider, especially if you are new to betting. This usually gives a good idea of who people are thinking of voting for as well as influencing the odds. So, when considering making a bet, looking at the public consensus at present and how it changed over time and what affected those changes is the first step to making an informed decision. However, some people choose to use their instincts and make gut decisions based on how they feel – and both strategies have shown to work at different times.
As the 2016 election showed us, betting on who might win the presidential election may not give us the same result as the victor of the popular vote. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote – meaning more citizens in the US wanted her to be President, but she lost the electoral college. This has occurred before, including with George W Bush in 2000, when Al Gore achieved a higher popular vote count than Bush did. But as we can see with Bush’s subsequent election, his performance as President was able to convince the public to vote for him fully in 2004. Perhaps this could also happen with Trump?
There are many events to bet on, from outright winner to who might win the popular vote, so news coverage should be considered on both accounts. The latter is decided solely by US citizens placing votes, while the former is also influenced by the electoral college. So, the public attitude across the country may be influenced by some of the larger, floating electoral college states such as Florida. So, general feeling and state-specific feeling should also be considered, especially if the state is usually incremental as a ‘kingmaker’.
Betting on the US Presidential election is usually simple. Recent years have added a degree of tension and excitement like no other. While those betting on outside chance Trump in 2016 were stunned to see the return on some of their wagers, the same bettors could see another windfall by betting the other way. When considering betting on the US election, consider public opinion as well as the consensus of those in the political machine.